The Breeze With Beverage Digest
The Breeze With Beverage Digest
Episode 19: KDP’s Ghost Gambit, Bang Founder’s Ai Reboot, and the Big Energy Squeeze
Beverage Digest Editor & Publisher Duane Stanford and industry expert & regular podcast contributor John Sicher discuss a wild October in the energy drinks sector.
Bang founder and former CEO Jack Owoc announced he is getting back into the energy game following the collapse of Bang. His new product is called Ai Energy. Then, Keurig Dr Pepper announced it was buying Ghost Energy and taking it out of the Anheuser-Busch system. This is the latest energy drink to be taken away from AB distributors. And Celsius just bought one of its co-packers for $75 million to get more control over its supply chain and innovation turnaround. What does all of this activity mean at a time when the energy category remains sluggish?
This episode was recorded on Nov. 1, 2024.
Hello, this is the Breeze with Beverage Digest. I'm your host, dwayne Stanford, the editor and publisher of Beverage Digest. The Breeze is where we bring you into the kinds of industry conversations we have every day at Beverage Digest. We dissect what's happening, connect the dots and ask the most important question what does this mean? I'm joined by my podcast collaborator, john Sitcher, a former editor and publisher of Beverage Digest, who has since consulted for companies including Coca-Cola, body Armor and Sweetener Company Pure Circle. John, hello again. Hey, dwayne, how are you Good to?
Speaker 2:be with you again.
Speaker 1:Good, Now I have to offer my condolences for your Yankees. I mean, it was a pretty inauspicious end to a pretty lopsided series. I'm really sorry about that.
Speaker 2:Dwayne, all I can tell you is this you know I'm a Yankee fan. Giving the Dodgers five unearned runs should have made KDP happy, because I rushed into the kitchen for some ginger ale to counter my nausea.
Speaker 1:That is awesome. Well, again, I'm sorry I tell you I had no real dog in this fight, but I did have some heartburn watching Freddie Freeman he's a former Brave belting balls over the wall to help win that series, like he did for us a couple of years ago. I tell you that's tough to watch, that we let him go, but hey, it is what it is. That's baseball right In the modern era.
Speaker 2:It's baseball and the Yankees really have to do some soul searching. They are a terrific team with lots of talent, and it's been a long time since they've really gotten right through to win the World Series. And folks in New York are scratching their heads. I mean, you know, a lot of us would have been okay with a 4-3 series ending in LA, but 5-4-1, it's just. It was a head-scratcher, dwayne.
Speaker 1:I do remember those days of the Dodgers Yankees Dynasties and them going at it in World Series. It was kind of fun seeing that again. So you know, may continue that over a year or two, right?
Speaker 2:May have been more fun for you being a National League fan.
Speaker 1:That's right. So, john, october was an absolutely crazy month in the energy category. I'm sure you saw this and hopefully our readers saw this that in mid-October we published an exclusive interview with former Bang Energy founder and CEO, jack Owak. He's getting back into the energy game following the collapse of Bang Energy and his new product, ai Energy. Here's a snippet of a recent social media post announcing the launch.
Speaker 3:Introducing AI Energy, the feel-good nootropic performance and lifestyle phenom, I am stoked to bring you my most brilliant, and so you have that.
Speaker 1:Now, last week, keurig Dr Pepper announced that it was buying ghost energy and taking it out of the Anheuser-Busch system. And this is yet another canned energy drink that was incubated by AB InBev and in this case, it was actually co-developed by AB that has now gone to a soft drink distribution system, after proving itself. After proving itself. And then another piece of news just today Celsius said it's buying one of its co-packers for $75 million to get more control over its supply chain and innovation turnaround. Now, john, as you well know, we've talked about this in previous podcasts. All of this comes as the energy category continues this year to be sluggish compared to what we've seen for many years now. How do we square all this?
Speaker 2:Yeah, look, I think the energy-during category is sluggish. I mean, I was looking at some data before we started the podcast and the energy-during category is slow and slow-eng. I mean in terms of volume in the retail data. In the first quarter this year it was up 2.6% and third quarter was down 0.5%. But I think it is a very profitable category and I think that we can get into what's happening now or later in the podcast. But I think the energy drink category still has legs. But I think some macroeconomic factors, dwayne, have to basically get resolved before that happens.
Speaker 1:Yeah, you know some more context on the numbers there, john. So if you look at a two-year CAGR for the energy category it was up almost 12% over those couple of years. In the most recent periods you're seeing growth of about 2.4%, you know, roughly two and a half percent up slightly from the 13th week, that's in the four week period, up slightly from the 13 week numbers of up 2%. But it's still pretty sluggish. And now you know there's a question. You know rebound before the end of the year, will it even rebound in the first half of next year? One of the things we're hearing is that C-source traffic continues to be challenging.
Speaker 2:During the years that I had Beverage Digest, I talked to a lot of experts in a lot of areas, as I'm sure you do, including economists, and one of the things I remember hearing was that for carbonated soft drinks, for many, many, many years and one of the things I remember hearing was that for carbonated soft drinks for many, many, many years, one of the biggest drivers of per capita growth was discretionary spending, and discretionary spending is really clear it's wages minus essentials. So what's happening in America right now, which is no surprise to any of your listeners to this podcast, is that for a lot of folks in the country, real wages have not grown nearly as fast as the cost of essentials. So discretionary spending is really getting squeezed and you can see that all over the place. You can see that in loan delinquencies going up and auto loans, mortgages, credit card loans, and I don't think that these categories including energy drinks, dwayne are going to basically get back to stronger growth until we see an uptick in discretionary spending.
Speaker 1:Yeah, that's why some of the you know there's been some positive economic signs recently Still a mixed bag in some ways. You know first half of next year is going to be pretty critical to see if consumers start to feel that discretionary budget. You know especially you know companies like Monster of low and middle income consumers. You know working folks, people who are going to feel squeezed quicker than you know people at the higher end of the economic scale and they're the ones who are going into C-stores less and drinking less of these products. So but meanwhile you know you've got.
Speaker 1:You've got Jack Owok. I mean he's piling back into the energy category. Despite everything that happened with Bang Energy, he's getting back in. He sees this still as a viable category. Any thoughts just in general about sort of his new proposition? I mean he's moved from this whole performance space that he really built.
Speaker 1:He helped kind of forge the performance energy category with Bang Energy really getting into fitness and gyms and he had, you know, bcaas and creatine. You know, despite the controversy of that later, you know he really marketed to that set of consumers and built that whole segment in energy which actually challenged the dominance of Monster and Red Bull. Now you've seen many other sort of categories come along, like Celsius with lifestyle energy, and you know you've got some of the so-called better for you energy drinks. You've got different segments emerging and now here comes Jack Owat, going a completely different direction and he's going with this whole premise around AI, ai energy and this notion that you know, young consumers you young consumers are into this. It's cool, it's interesting, but he's still got this real kind of mix of these. What he says are brain ingredients to help your thinking and feel more alert and energized than just caffeine alone, and he's couching this all within the notion of AI and brain power.
Speaker 2:Look, yes, the controversy that you mentioned, yeah, the controversy with PepsiCo. But I got to tell you something I admire the guy. I mean it is not easy in the beverage business or probably any other business, but we're talking about beverages to create and grow a brand, and he did that with Bang and I think that he is the kind of entrepreneur that you have to watch. He's now basically taking another shot at it with AI. I bet on the guy Dwayne. I think he's got. I bet on the guy Dwayne, you know, I think he's got lots of creativity, lots of imagination. I don't know how he's going to get distribution, but I would not bet against him on this new energy drink proposition he has.
Speaker 1:I mean, he's an eccentric guy. He's got this kind of catastrophic collapse of something he built pretty much out of nowhere. You can't count him out for sure, and he does. I mean, he had this amazing bank of influencers with Bang and he seems to be looking to tap into that again. And you know, I've looked at some of his social media, including, you know, the piece we just presented and he really does have a knack for understanding what his specific consumer set wants to hear and he's kind of created a personality that they like. And if you look at the comments in some of those videos, it's overwhelmingly positive. He's got a real following. So, you know, you definitely can't count him out from that perspective. And he's, you know he sort of made all the mistakes. So you know, as they say with entrepreneurs, the best entrepreneurs have made mistakes before. So we'll see.
Speaker 1:But yeah, I think he does have an uphill battle when it comes to distribution, except for the fact that now Ghost has gone out of the AB system, so that, you know, does that leave room for him? Now, I mean it's incredible because you had a situation where Bang went to Pepsi, had a massive distribution deal, blew it up. Celsius moves into that void. First of all, celsius moved into the AB void left by Bang, then it moves into the Pepsi void left by Bang. Bang, you know, goes away. Next thing, you know, ghost emerges in the AB system. Through all this and actually, you know, since, you know, during COVID, really, you know, proved itself, now it goes out of the system and hello, here's Jack Owok who has an opportunity to now pop right into that system, assuming these distributors, you know, feel like they can trust him and that he's still a horse to bet on.
Speaker 1:I mean it's kind of incredible right.
Speaker 2:It really is. You know, again, I respect anybody who can build a brand. You know the three guys from Brooklyn who invented and built Snapple, guys like Rapoli with Body Armor. It's very hard and I think he did that with Bang and so, as I said, you can't count the guy out. And I still think the beverage, as I said, the energy drink category although there's not much growth right now, it's still very attractive. You know, you look around convenience stores, at least in the Northeast, and they're dominated by energy drinks. So maybe growth has slowed, but people are still drinking these things and I think, as I said, when the economy gets a bit straightened out and discretionary spending increases, I think energy drinks will return to stronger growth, because I think the appeal of energy drinks is very, very strong and clear for consumers.
Speaker 1:And it's a premium product that's very attractive from that perspective as well. I mean some of the price points that they're able to get from energy drinks.
Speaker 1:Now, you hear a lot of commentary about AB distributors being, you know, kind of ticked off now that Ghost has moved out. You know they were ticked off when stuff happened with Bang. You know you hear that a lot, you know, and look, I read some of my colleagues in the beer trades and they're just amazing at what they do and, you know, have great sourcing of course, as we do in our world. But you know I do have to keep thinking look, they keep signing up with these companies. You know you had Monster that was with AB and then it went to Coke. You had Bang that went to PepsiCo from the AB system.
Speaker 1:I mean you've had now Ghost leaving. I mean you know Celsius at one point. I mean these companies keep leaving, they keep signing these deals. There's clearly something in it for them. So you know, maybe they're mad, but I mean I have a hard time seeing that they're not going to go. And you know, if Jack Owak offers a product and can get them product and has good marketing behind it and a good base, I have a hard time believing they're not going to just sign up right again and do it all again.
Speaker 2:Look exactly. I mean, my guess is he'll find a route to market and he'll get some traction with his brand because he seems to be really good at the kind of marketing that energy drinks need. And you know, we'll have to see what happens. But as I said, dwayne, you know I would not bet against this guy.
Speaker 1:It does kind of just a sideline question. It does kind of raise the question too Is AB just going to buy an energy drink company at some point itself and actually just hold on to an energy drink company, or is it just never really going to make sense for them when you know, frankly, beer is their thing and you know there's various opportunities and RTD, alcohol and other things, you know, maybe they'll just kind of keep the same cycle. Of course they've got a you know really good payday out of this ghost deal, so let's not lose sight of that.
Speaker 2:Look, you know, I think marketing energy drinks is very tough, you? I think that one of the reasons why Coke has not bought Monster is because the people at Coke realize that it takes a different mindset to market an energy drink than it does a flagship carbonated soft drink like Coke or Sprite. And I don't know what ABI is going to do. I think ABI will probably find another energy drink for its distributors, but I'm not sure that. I think ABI will probably find another energy drink for its distributors, but I'm not sure that. I mean, you probably know ABI better than I do, but I get the sense that ABI and Coke share certain commonalities. They're pretty good at marketing and selling big, muscular flagship brands, but maybe they're not so sure about their ability to sell, you know, a niche edgy brand like an energy drink.
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Speaker 1:Ghost Energy, I mean huge announcement last week. Keurig Dr Pepper has already been, you know, signing up distribution deals. I mean they've got C4 in their portfolio. You know they've added Ghost. They've got another little kind of healthy energy drink called Bloom. You know they signed up Electrolyte on the sports drink side as well, but was that surprising that they picked up yet another kind of up and coming energy drink? I mean, they've talked about this portfolio strategy that they have and they think it's differentiated. But you know, what do you think?
Speaker 2:I mean yes and no. I mean they've been pretty clear about their desire to do deals. I read that in Beverage Digest, I think, a year or so ago, and I think, if you look, kdp is a very CSD-focused company. Dr Pepper is their big brand. They do a very good job with it is their big brand, they do a very good job with it. And if they want to basically do deals and expand their portfolio based upon what we're talking about, I think energy drinks are the way to do it.
Speaker 2:It doesn't do KDB any good to buy another tea brand, for example. Water they're not going to get into. Sports drinks are dominated today by PepsiCo and Coca-Cola. So the energy drink business to me, even though there's not a lot of growth right now, is a really good place for a company like KDP to do deals. So it makes sense. And Ghost is a nice brand. It's a small brand. It's got about a three and a half share but it's posting nice growth. It's a small brand. It's got about a three and a half share but it's posting nice growth. It's one of the top growing brands in the energy drink category right now and it makes perfect sense. I think they were smart to do this.
Speaker 1:Do you buy the notion that these various brands within their portfolio now are really complementary and that they kind of serve different user bases and that it really is a portfolio strategy really complimentary and that they kind of serve different user bases and that it really is a portfolio strategy or is it really more likely that these are? Hey, let's sign up a few horses and see who can win the day.
Speaker 2:Look, I think managing multiple brands in one category is very, very difficult. Look at the struggle Coke has had. They have not been able to continue the growth of body armor since they bought it. Managing powerade and body armor has been tough Years and years ago. What's now KDP used to be Cadbury Schweppes beverages was very clear about not wanting to basically have multiple big brands in one segment. So I think it's going to be a struggle.
Speaker 2:I do not know what their strategy is having multiple energy drinks, although what I do think is that if you want to basically expand your portfolio in this day and age in the beverage business, it's hard to imagine a better way to do it than add another energy direct. I mean, consumers love these products. As I said a few minutes ago, I think when the macroeconomics straighten out, like right now, there's not much growth at all in LRBs. I mean, if you look at across all the categories CSDs, sports drinks, water, juices, teas, blah, blah, blah everything is in the flattest range, and I think that's partly because of the macroeconomics are tough and people don't have a lot of discretionary spending. But I think when that straightens out and I think it will I think energy drinks are going to probably benefit earliest and most. So you know, hats off to KDP for buying a good small energy brand.
Speaker 1:Yeah, and I do buy the differentiation between some of these brands. I mean you've still got a brand like C4. That really is that whole gym, bodybuilding, performance, you know performance fitness sort of a brand. And then you've got, you know, a brand like Ghost, which you know has some of that element too. There's some crossover, but it also is very lifestyle. I mean their whole partnerships with candy brands really kind of creates a whole new segment of consumers that are just more lifestyle consumers and young consumers, so you know, genzennials and the like.
Speaker 1:So I do think there is some sense to that whole portfolio strategy. They've now got Black Rifle Energy as well, which is that is kind of you can see that as being a distinct kind of a differentiated consumer set as well. So I do buy the fact that they have this kind of portfolio strategy. But I do think it's also very much the case that hey, let's hit these, make sure there's not too much crossover and then see which one of these really ends up, you know, rising to the top and try. You know, I imagine they're expecting one of these to take on Celsius and to rival Celsius for that number three spot and look to take share in various ways from Monster and Red Bull and, frankly, if all three do well in their respective sort of segments of the market, that's a nice you know coalition to go after some of that Monster and Red Bull dominance as well, I would think.
Speaker 2:I've got a lot of regard for the management of KDP. I think they're doing a good job with Dr Pepper and I think they really I think they think things through very carefully. So I you know, I would imagine that they'll probably end up with a pretty good energy strategy. But let me ask you a question what's going on with Celsius? I was looking at some numbers. I was looking at some numbers. I was looking at some numbers before the podcast Wayne. If you compare first quarter to third quarter, celsius's growth rate has dropped from about 70% to 10%. Uh, what, what? What's going on there? Do you think?
Speaker 1:Yeah, I mean, I think it's still some of the same that we've seen from them this year. Uh, you know, you've got a combination of, uh, just this, uh, this whole energy sluggishness that's hitting them as well. Um and uh, you know that's a premium product and I think some of those, uh, middle income consumers you know the white collar types who are at the lower end of that white collar spectrum there, you know, look, they're having to cut back some too, and you know, a lot of it comes back to that discretionary spending that you talked about earlier. I mean, I think if you look at them across the, you know the entire our preliminary numbers. We'll be coming out with our energy drink numbers in the next newsletter for the first nine months of this year. On a preliminary basis, we're seeing, you know, like 35% growth on a dollar basis for Celsius, which is still very healthy growth, but it's really interesting.
Speaker 1:They're, you know, like 20 points behind Alani New, which that's a really interesting one, because Alani New had this real surge. Then it kind of plateaued and was almost declining for a little bit and had this really kind of soft, mushy period where you were, you know, kind of wondering if it was going to survive or stay around or be able to continue any kind of momentum. There was some talk that the owner wanted out, that the influencer, katie Hearn, who created that, wanted out. They seem to have gotten past all that and leaned back into it in the marketing and that brand is starting to take off again, and I think what's happened is that some of that Alani New is basically picking up some share from Celsius. I think is what's happening. Celsius has sort of marked its territory and Alani New's figured out a way to come and play in some of those same spaces that Celsius was as well and have just kind of gotten their act back together. So I think that's one of the more interesting brands right now is Elani New, and I think in one way that could bode well for Celsius, though, because you know Celsius, you know it had its rocket ship.
Speaker 1:You know, of course, the brand's been around forever, but it had this rocket ship over the last few years. Now it's starting to kind of settle back to towards earth a little bit. Again. 35% growth is still really good, but it's settling back towards earth. You know they're going to retool. You know to the extent that they need to they're going to, you know, ground themselves where they need to and, you know, are they going to be able to sort of swing back up with the tide that you talked about, for next year's discretionary income gets back up and the economy does things.
Speaker 1:I mean, I think you can't really count them out right now. And then, of course, today you've got them, you know, taking control of their supply chain with you know, by buying one of their major co-packers, for you know they're going to spend $75 million to buy this co-packer and what they've said is that they want control over their supply chain and they also want to be able to have quick turnaround on innovation. You know they can, you know, test and learn when you control your own distribution. You don't have to wait for for your turn or wait for space that that can make a difference, uh, in terms of trying new flavors and and I think they probably have some flavor work to do, especially with the proliferation of all kinds of different flavors out there and styles of energy drinks. So it's an interesting move. But we kind of had a quick chat about that when the news broke and I think you raised some kind of interesting questions about that too.
Speaker 2:When I saw the press release I scratched my head a little bit because I wondered why they're spending $75 million on a co-packing plant. You would think that since Pepsi distributes them, pepsi would basically be happy to basically, you know, pack for them. But they must have their reasons, you know. I think Pepsi probably like Coke, has capacity, both cold fill and the septic and hot fill today, but maybe they want to control their own production. But I did scratch my head a little bit when I saw that announcement as to why they're not going to have Pepsi do their production for them.
Speaker 1:So it's an interesting point. Production for them. So it's an interesting point. It's like why wouldn't PepsiCo have enough capacity for them, given you know some of the volume declines that they've seen? I guess it's a question mark. I guess you can't necessarily interchange carbonated soft drink production with energy drinks. But then you've got PepsiCo, you know they've got Rockstar. Now they're, you know, really emphasizing their energy drink brands more. Maybe they just don't want to give up flexibility and if you're Celsius you don't want to run the risk of some strategic change at PepsiCo. I mean, they've actually closed some plants in recent weeks as they try to streamline some costs. I don't know if there's anything going on with that, but yeah, I think you raise a good point. You do kind of wonder like why would you need that capacity necessarily?
Speaker 2:Well, because right now, if they're producing themselves, they got to ship to Pepsi to get it into the market. You know, if Pepsi were producing for them, it sounds to me like it eliminates one step. But again, they're smart folks, they know what they're doing. More power to them. Looking at some data again in advance of the podcast, bang which we talked about earlier, has all of a sudden returned to not only growth but pretty strong growth in the third quarter at retail. Second quarter it was down, third quarter it's up. What do you think Monster is doing with Bang to get some nice growth out of Bang? All of a sudden?
Speaker 1:I mean, what an interesting story that will be right If that thing starts moving up the charts again, you know, under Monster ownership, and you can't help but wonder, with Jack Owak being out there doing his thing, if that just reminds people of Bang again, or does it work against you? I don't know. That'll be fun to watch. But to your question, I mean Monster has streamlined the product portfolio. They've taken a portfolio strategy to that product and put it in the places and really concentrated it in the places where they know it'll have the most bang for the buck and that where those consumers do still exist and you know, I think they've.
Speaker 1:You know, with that focused approach, I see no reason why they can't, you know, grow that and sort of start pushing it up the charts, because you know there was a very large and loyal base and I think some of those people might have, you know, fled because of, you know, jack Owok, the vitriol between Owok and Monster following the lawsuit. But there's lots of consumers who probably weren't paying attention to any of that, probably barely even really understood it, who are, you know, love that brand with their, you know they've got those kind of fun radical flavors. You know in large part they weren't doing it with brand partnerships, but they were doing some pretty wild flavors that consumers liked even before Ghost. Ghost took it to another level by actually tying up with nostalgic candy brands et cetera, but Bang still has that going for it. So I think that's what's happening and I'm not surprised at all.
Speaker 2:Right, you know, again it goes back to what we were saying. I mean, jack built a brand and bang, and through all the you know the controversy and the sale and turmoil, it certainly lost a lot of its business, but it's growing again now and you know, monster's a great company. I'm sure they're doing a great job with it. But Jack built the brand.
Speaker 1:Yeah, I mean I think the bottom line of all this discussion today for me is that the energy category is sluggish right now. It's got this, you know economic issue going on, but I don't see any reason why this category, like you, isn't going to surge again. I think it's a strong, important category. It's not going anywhere and I think most experts would agree that this is probably a blip. Watching it closely but probably a blip. But I think you also have to step back and say look, if you've got KDP investing this way, you've got even Jack Owok jumping back in.
Speaker 1:You know who's been around the block on energy drinks. You have what Monster's doing with Bang. You've got Celsius looking for its next, you know, towards the future and making sure it shores up its production, going forward and its innovation ability. I mean all of that speaks to, you know, that level of investment, speaks to the fact that they all feel like this category is still viable. So I think that's the bottom line here is that this is still an interesting, viable category and it's going to continue to be important. I mean we've come nowhere near calling the death of a category or anything like that. It's just sort of a struggle right now, but at the end of the day, you got to feel good, and I think what that means is there's just going to continue to be a lot more activity around this category.
Speaker 2:Look, we saw the energy drink business flatten out during the 2007-2008 financial crisis and then returned a nice growth, and I've always believed that retailers really understand the beverage business because they're the ones who are selling it to consumers. And you know, I visited a bunch of convenience stores around Long Island this summer and they're stocked to the gills with energy drinks. Yep, they've got their CSDs and they've got their water and some sports drinks their CSDs and they've got their water and some sports drinks. But if you look at some of these C-stores out in Long Island, New York, you'd think that the beverage business today is energy drinks. And so I agree with you, Duane. I think that the macroeconomic issues have to be resolved. Energy drinks are expensive. A lot of consumers, especially consumers in the lower couple of quintiles, are pinched. But I think when we do this podcast a year from now, we're going to see energy drinks back to mid-single-digit, to high-single-digit growth again.
Speaker 1:Yeah, I agree, and we both remember the days when people still were thinking energy drinks could just be a fad. Well, I think you know that's been well proven now that that's not the case. But, John, as usual, great chatting with you. I really enjoyed these conversations and thanks so much for being with me again.
Speaker 2:Wayne, thank you for everything Good talking to you, and I hope we don't have to talk about the Yankees anytime soon again.
Speaker 1:Until the World Series next year. Take care, the Breeze is produced by Beverage Digest. Visit our website to learn more about our products and subscribe to our newsletter. That's wwwbeverage-digestcom.